SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration
The distortion of beliefs in the face of uncertainty
Abstract: Judgements and beliefs often are distorted. They are
affected by underlying values and reflect strong tendencies toward wishful
thinking. In action, biased thinking may or may not be detrimental, and
there is a very delicate balance to keep between the need to motivate
oneself for forceful action, and to keep a realistic view of the
possibilities of success. People encounter problems, calling for thought
and the formation of constructs, only rather rarely, but when they do they
tend to be in an unpleasant emotional state. Uncertainty is one such state,
in which one encounters difficult problems and expects little success.
Keywords: thought biases; heuristics; judgement; decision making; (follow links to similar papers)
30 pages, May 2002
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- This paper is published as:
Sjöberg, Lennart, (2007), 'The distortion of beliefs in the face of uncertainty.', International Journal of Management and Decision Making, Vol. 8, No. 1, pages 1-29
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