SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration
Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer
(), Mattias Ekman
() and Jan Edman
Abstract: This paper investigates forecasting performance and
judgmental processes of experts and non-experts in soccer. Two
circumstances motivated the paper: (i) little is known about how accurately
experts predict sports events, and (ii) recent research on human judgment
suggests that ignorance-based decision-strategies may be reliable. About
250 participants with different levels of knowledge of soccer took part in
a survey and predicted the outcome of the first round of World Cup 2002. It
was found that the participating experts (i.e., sport journalists, soccer
fans, and soccer coaches) were not more accurate than the non-experts.
Experts overestimated their performance and were overconfident. While the
experts claimed to have relied on analytical approaches and much
information, participants with limited knowledge stated that their
forecasts were based upon recognition and few pieces of information. The
paper concludes that a recognition-based strategy seems to be appropriate
when forecasting worldwide soccer events.
Keywords: Expert predictions; Information use; Judgmental forecasting; Overconfidence; Recognition heuristic; Sports forecasting; (follow links to similar papers)
26 pages, May 17, 2003
Submitted for publication
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