Scandinavian Working Papers in Business Administration
Finance Working Papers,
University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies
No 01-9: A New Test for Speculative Bubbles Based on Return Variance Decompositions.
Tom Engsted () and Carsten Tanggaard ()
Additional contact information
Tom Engsted: Department of Finance, Aarhus School of Business, Postal: Fuglesangs Allé 4, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
Carsten Tanggaard: Department of Finance, Aarhus School of Business, Postal: Fuglesangs Allé 4, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
Abstract: We suggest a new test for speculative stock market bubbles that has several advantages compared to earlier bubble tests. The test makes use of the fact that the variance of excess return innovations and the variance of (dividend news minus interest rate news minus excess returm news) will be equal if there is no bubble, and differ if there is a bubble. A VAR-model is used to estimate the variance decomposition, and the test is computed using bootstrap simulation. On US and UK data over the period 1919-1999, the test does not reject the no-buble hypothesis.
Keywords: Speculative bubbles; Return variance decomposition; Vector-autoregression; Bootstrap simulation; US and UK stoch markets
13 pages, September 21, 2001
Full text files
D01_9.PDF
- University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies
- Home page for this series
Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Helle Vinbaek Stenholt ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().
RePEc:hhb:aarfin:2001_009This page generated on 2024-09-13 22:18:13.