Scandinavian Working Papers in Business Administration
Working Papers,
Stockholm School of Economics, Center for Educational Leadership and Excellence
No 26/3: Does the Bigger-Fish-in-the-Pond Hatch More Fry? A register-Based Analysis Towards Assessing Causal Effects of Students Grade Rank Position in Schools on Completed Fertility, Marriage, and Divorce by Age 40
Linus Andersson (), Iman Dadgar () and Roujman Shahbazian ()
Additional contact information
Linus Andersson: Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University
Iman Dadgar: Center for Education and Leadership Excellence, Postal: Stockholm School of Economics, Center for Education and Leadership Excellence, Saltmätargatan 13-17, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm
Roujman Shahbazian: Center for Education and Leadership Excellence, Postal: Stockholm School of Economics, Center for Education and Leadership Excellence, Saltmätargatan 13-17, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm
Abstract: Educational attainment is strongly associated with fertility and family formation, yet less is known about whether students’ relative standing within schools is linked to later demographic outcomes. This study examines whether 9th-grade rank within the school GPA distribution predicts completed fertility, marriage, and divorce by age 40. Using Swedish population-wide register data (N ≈ 726,000), we compare students with similar national GPA but different relative school rank, applying school-by-cohort fixed effects to reduce selection bias. Results show that relative academic position is associated with demographic behavior net of absolute performance. Lower relative rank is linked to higher childlessness and fewer children for both women and men, and to lower marriage and higher divorce risks among men. Higher rank is primarily associated with delayed motherhood. The findings suggest that institutionalized social comparisons in compulsory schooling are linked to long-term family outcomes, consistent with reference group mechanisms.
Keywords: Fertility; Marriage; Divorce; School position; Reference groups; Register Data
32 pages, March 13, 2026
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