Scandinavian Working Papers in Business Administration
Working Papers,
Örebro University, School of Business
No 2007:6: Economic Fluctuations and Mortality:Evidence from Wavelet Analysis for Sweden 1800-2000
Niclas A Krüger () and Mikael Svensson ()
Additional contact information
Niclas A Krüger: Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics, Postal: Örebro University, Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics, SE - 701 82 ÖREBRO, Sweden
Mikael Svensson: Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics, Postal: Örebro University, Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics, SE - 701 82 ÖREBRO, Sweden
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the relationship between crude and age adjusted mortality andeconomic conditions by wavelet analysis in Sweden over the period 1800-2000. We use wavelet correlations and cross-correlations to analyze the contemporaneous connection as well as the lead/lag relationship between mortality and GDP at different time scales. Our results indicate a countercyclical relationship, i.e. mortality decreases in economic upturns, for all time horizons. The relationship is strongest and highly significant for dynamics with a period between 4 and 8 years, corresponding to the length of a typical Swedish business cycle. By means of vector autoregressive modelling, we further examine the dynamics of the response in mortality to an exogenous GDP growth shock. Our results indicate that economic upturns decreases contemporaneous mortality and increases mortality between six and eight years ahead.
Keywords: Mortality; GDP growth; Wavelet
22 pages, October 29, 2007
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