Scandinavian Working Papers in Business Administration
Working Papers,
Örebro University, School of Business
No 2025:13: The Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Jobs: Evidence from an AI Subsidy Program
Mark Hellsten (), Shantanu Khanna (), Magnus Lodefalk () and Yaroslav Yakymovych ()
Additional contact information
Mark Hellsten: University of Tübingen, Postal: University of Tübingen, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz, 72074 Tübingen , Germany
Shantanu Khanna: Northeastern University, Postal: Northeastern University, 420 Renaissance Park, 1135 Tremont Street, Boston, MA 02115, 617.373.5173
Magnus Lodefalk: Örebro University School of Business, Postal: Örebro University, School of Business, SE - 701 82 ÖREBRO, Sweden
Yaroslav Yakymovych: Uppsala University, Postal: Uppsala University, Trädgårdsgatan 18, Box 514, 751 20 Uppsala
Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to reshape labor markets, yet causal evidence remains scarce. We exploit a novel Swedish subsidy program that encouraged small and mid-sized firms to adopt AI. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design comparing awarded and non-awarded firms, we find that AI subsidies led to a sustained increase in job postings over five years, but with no statistically detectable change in employment. This pattern reflects hiring signals concentrated in AI occupations and white-collar roles. Our findings align with task-based models of automation, in which AI adoption reconfigures work and spurs demand for new skills, but hiring frictions and the need for complementary investments delay workforce expansion.
Keywords: Artificial intelligence; Labor markets; Hiring; Task content; Technological change
Language: English
63 pages, November 14, 2025
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